In Sam Altman’s interview with Fortune, he declared that an OpenAI IPO in 20**26 would be “ill-advised,” citing ongoing safety considerations as a primary reason. Altman also touched on the Hugging Face hacking incident, recursive self-improvement, and the potential for an AI surpassing human control, which he believes is “absolutely” possible. He pledged to pause training if necessary to prevent such a scenario, emphasizing that the risks are worth the potential rewards for humanity. Yet, despite these insights, Altman suggests that OpenAI might not be ready to go public just yet, pointing to the company’s focus on safety as a key factor.

However, one could argue that Altman’s assessment might be overly cautious. OpenAI has been making significant strides in AI development, including breakthroughs in natural language processing and generative models. These advancements could have been showcased to investors, demonstrating the company’s market potential and revenue-generating capabilities. By waiting until 20**26, OpenAI might miss out on capitalizing on its current momentum, potentially allowing competitors to capture market share or secure additional funding for their own AI projects.

Moreover, the assumption that safety concerns alone will deter an IPO in 20**26 overlooks the track record of tech companies going public despite similar challenges. Companies like Google and Amazon have successfully gone public while grappling with complex technological and market dynamics. Altman’s emphasis on safety risks, while valid, might be seen as a smokescreen to delay the IPO and allow more time for OpenAI to solidify its position as a market leader, perhaps even at a higher valuation.

Another point to consider is the potential timing of the AI revolution itself. If Altman believes that AI beyond human control is “absolutely” possible, then the window for an IPO might be narrower than he anticipates. The AI boom could be exponential, with investors eager to jump in before the next big breakthrough. By waiting until 20**26, OpenAI might be too late to capture the peak interest and investment frenzy, especially if the next big AI milestone is achieved by 20**25 or earlier.

In conclusion, while Altman’s reasoning for postponing OpenAI’s IPO to 20**26 due to safety considerations is compelling, it may be overly conservative. The company’s rapid advancements in AI, comparable to those of other tech giants that have gone public, suggest that OpenAI could have successfully navigated an IPO sooner. Additionally, the timing of the AI revolution might align more closely with 20**25, making 20**26 a slightly later entry point. Nonetheless, Altman’s cautious approach could pay off if it leads to even greater AI innovations and a higher valuation by the time OpenAI finally goes public.